1/3Morning update:This week, J. Powell will again be in the spotlight😉 Tomorrow, he will have a speech where the market participants will look for a confirmation of what he said last week. Considering the fact that he created a big mess in the markets, it will be interesting to see if he will clean it up with a more hawkish tone...
2/3This will be especially interesting since we got strong job market data last Friday. Although the data looks cooked, we are looking forward to hearing what he has to say about it. Will this be the green light he needs in order to continue with rate hikes? Let’s wait and see🤔
3/3Lastly, we will not make any changes to our structure at this point. We are well-positioned for any outcomes so let’s wait and see what happens next👀Have a great start of the week🙌
1/5Morning update:Yesterday, we got a lot of important economic data and ever since the release, many analysts are wondering what happened. The data we got was far from expectations and is signaling that the economy is very strong😅According to the reported data, unemployment dropped to 3,4%, the lowest since 1969. Meanwhile, big corporations continue to lay off thousands of employees😉Recent layoffs:Amazon: 18,000Google: 12,000Sales Force: 8,000IBM: 3,900Goldman Sachs: 3,200SAP: 2,8003M: 2,500Pay Pal: 2,000Wayfair 1,750Kraken: 1,200Coinbase: 950Spotify: 600Hubspot: 500Keep in mind that those are just some that we can think off..
2/5ISM services also saw a big jump but this would be easier to believe as many business deals agreed on in December are usually realized in January. The numbers are likely cooked but at least there is some kind of explanation for it😅
3/5Anyway, the jobs data looks cooked but at the same time gives Powell the green light for more rate hikes. This is why the market wasn’t too happy about this "good news". Whatever is true, we still believe that something is off and there will need to be significant repricings in major financial markets. The fact that the FTSE 100 index consisting of top companies listed on the London stock exchange yesterday reached a new all-time high is shocking👀 Is the economy really doing that well?🤔https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/03/ftse-100-hits-record-high
4/5All this hype is happening in the markets due to the belief that a soft landing is here, inflation is cooling off and the FED will pivot. Delusional🤦♂️You can listen to what the president of ECB has to say about all this👇https://twitter.com/ecb/status/1621424196461928449?s=20&t=yPb3D1UFFbTyEV6ptXvFog
5/5Lastly, we will stick to our strategy and continue to have a small exposure in the market. This will allow us to make some gains in case this insanity continues and protect us from a big drop once the markets start to reprice👌P.S. Tomorrow is our day off so we will be back with our updates on Monday.
1/6Morning update:Yesterday, we saw a rally in the stock market and this was expected. What was surprising is the fact that the crypto market did not follow the move until major tech companies reported disappointing earnings results and we saw a small drop🤔https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/feb/02/apple-revenue-drop-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2023
2/6Yesterday proved to us that the market lost its compass and is becoming totally irrational. Bed Bath & Beyond failed to make interest payments on its bonds just weeks after the company warned it was considering filing for bankruptcy, yet the stock is surging higher🚀Insanity at its finest. At some point, the stock was up over 25%🤦♂️https://www.barrons.com/articles/bed-bath-beyond-stock-misses-interest-payments-51675351365